Another Month, More Sideways

Blue arrow is current week’s bar as of 3/11/26 (source: stockcharts.com)

Another month, another newsletter reporting on a market that continues to move sideways.

We are currently involved in a conflict with Iran in the Middle East, which of course introduces plenty of headline risk and the potential for market volatility. Encouragingly, at least so far, the market has not reacted dramatically. Prices have dipped a bit, but overall we remain within the same trading range we’ve been in for months.

To me, that’s actually a positive sign.

The market has been given several reasons it could have sold off sharply. Instead, it has largely held its ground. That doesn’t mean it can’t lose that footing at some point. Markets can change direction quickly. But for now, the resilience is encouraging.

We are seeing some weakness in small-cap companies after their strong start to the year. As I mentioned in my last newsletter, international markets have also softened a bit.

One important thing to remember is how connected global markets are. The United States remains the largest and most influential capital market in the world. When the U.S. market struggles, global investors pull risk off the table everywhere. That often leads to selling across international markets as well.

There is an old saying in investing: “In a downturn, correlations go to one.” In plain English, that means when markets fall hard, many investments around the world fall together.

For now, the same portfolio guidance still applies.

Stay neutral in your allocations. Try not to predict which direction the market will move next. And remain comfortable with the fact that markets will fluctuate. That is their nature.

The News Is Not Your Friend

Many clients, and many people in general, enjoy watching the news every day. Some even view it as a civic duty to stay informed about what is happening in the world.

I’m not here to criticize that habit. Instead, I simply want to remind you of what the news business is, so you can decide for yourself how much of it you want in your life.

In summary, the news is not your friend.

It does not care about your well-being or your financial decisions. News organizations are for-profit businesses, and their primary goal is to keep you watching, clicking, or reading for as long as possible. The longer they hold your attention, the more valuable they become to advertisers.

This would not be much of a problem if good news sold as well as bad news.

Unfortunately, human psychology doesn’t work that way.

Researchers have repeatedly found that negative headlines attract far more attention than positive ones. Studies of major news outlets have shown that roughly 80–90 percent of news coverage is negative in tone, even during periods when objective measures of global well-being are improving.

From a business perspective, this makes perfect sense. If you want viewers to stay glued to the screen, fear and urgency are powerful tools.

There is another psychological factor at play as well: recency bias. Recency bias is our tendency to believe that whatever we are hearing about right now is representative of how the world truly is.

If we constantly see chaos on the news, we believe the world itself is chaotic. And if we believe the world is chaotic, fear drives our decisions.

This is especially dangerous when it comes to investing.

Financial journalists are not incentivized to help you make wise, patient investment decisions. Their goal is engagement, not long-term portfolio success.

Even the “experts” frequently brought onto financial television have their own incentives. Many of them manage money professionally. Some own the assets they are recommending. Others may be short the investments they are criticizing.

In other words, they may benefit if prices go up. Or, if prices go down.

We rarely know their full positioning, but we do know that conflicts of interest exist. That’s why I often suggest a very simple remedy when the news feels overwhelming.

Turn it off.

Go outside. Take a walk. Call a friend. Do something kind for someone else.

The world is usually far calmer, kinder, and more stable than the news would have us believe. Sometimes the best way to stay informed is to step away from the noise and experience life directly.

In Closing

Markets will continue doing what they have always done. They will move forward, pause, fake us out, surprise us, and then move forward again.

Our job as investors is not to predict every twist and turn. Our job is to stay disciplined, remain patient, and keep a clear perspective when the noise ramps up.

As always, I’m keeping a close eye on where money is flowing and how leadership in the market is changing. My goal is to help you stay prepared and confident, regardless of what the headlines say.

And if you know someone in your circle who feels overwhelmed by the constant market chatter, or who could benefit from a calmer, more thoughtful approach to investing, I would be grateful for an introduction. Referrals from clients remain the most meaningful way this practice grows, and I would love the opportunity to help the people you care about.

Thank you, as always, for your trust.

Disclosures:

The NASDAQ Composite Index measures all NASDAQ domestic and non-U.S. based common stocks listed on The NASDAQ Stock Market. The market value, the last sale price multiplied by total shares outstanding, is calculated throughout the trading day, and is related to the total value of the Index. 

Indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested in directly.

Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss.

The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.